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RTP Explained: What Return-to-Player Actually Means (And Why Most Players Get It Wrong)

The statistical reality behind "hot" and "cold" slots
Written by
Guru Gwen
Published on
26 March 2024

Walk into any casino—online or land-based—and you'll hear players talk about slots being "hot" or "cold," "due for a payout," or "tight after a big win."

None of that is real.

Slots don't have memory. They don't get hot or cold. They don't know you just lost 20 spins in a row, and they don't care. Every spin is statistically independent, governed by a Random Number Generator (RNG) programmed to return a specific percentage to players over millions of spins.

That percentage? It's called RTP (Return to Player), and it's the single most important number you need to understand if you gamble on slots.

This guide explains what RTP actually means, why short-term results feel nothing like the published percentage, and how to use RTP data to choose games that give you the best chance—or at least, lose slower.

The bottom line: RTP is real. Your "system" for beating slots isn't.

Return to Player: The House Edge in Reverse

RTP (Return to Player) is the percentage of all wagered money that a slot machine is programmed to pay back to players over its lifetime.

Example:
A slot with 96% RTP means that for every €100 wagered across all players over millions of spins, the slot will return €96 to players and keep €4 for the casino.

Key Points:

  • RTP is calculated over millions of spins, not dozens
  • It applies to all players combined, not individuals
  • It's theoretical—a long-term statistical average, not a guarantee
  • The remaining percentage (100% - RTP) is the house edge

Translation:
A 96% RTP slot has a 4% house edge. Over time, you're expected to lose 4% of every bet you make.

Why You Can Lose 50 Spins in a Row on a 96% RTP Slot

Here's where players get confused: RTP applies over millions of spins, not your session.

The Reality of Short-Term Play:

You sit down with €100 at a 96% RTP slot.

You might:

  • Win €200 in 20 spins (short-term luck)
  • Lose €100 in 50 spins (short-term variance)
  • Break even over 100 spins (unlikely, but possible)

None of these outcomes contradict the 96% RTP.

Here's Why:

RTP is like flipping a coin. Over 1,000,000 flips, you'll get close to 50% heads and 50% tails.
But in your first 10 flips? You might get 7 heads and 3 tails.

Slots work the same way. The 96% RTP will happen—but only after millions of spins across thousands of players.

Your 200-spin session? That’s noise.

Who Sets RTP (And Can Casinos Cheat)?

Who Determines RTP?

Game developers (NetEnt, Pragmatic Play, Microgaming, etc.) program the RTP into the slot before release. Casinos do not control the RTP of individual games.

How It’s Verified:

Reputable slots are audited before being licensed for real-money play:

  • eCOGRA
  • iTech Labs
  • GLI
  • BMM Testlabs

These labs run millions of simulated spins to verify accuracy.

Can Casinos Rig RTP?

Not if they're licensed properly.

  • MGA, UKGC, and similar regulators require certified games
  • Curacao and weaker jurisdictions have looser oversight, but good operators still use audited games

Where risk exists:
Unlicensed casinos or pirated/"fake" game versions.

How to protect yourself:
Only play at licensed casinos that publish RTP data and audit certifications.

Understanding the Math That Guarantees You Lose

RTP and house edge are inversely related:

House Edge = 100% - RTP

Examples:

GameRTPHouse EdgeWhat It MeansSlot A98%2%You lose €2 per €100 wageredSlot B96%4%You lose €4 per €100 wageredSlot C88%12%You lose €12 per €100 wagered

Example Scenario:

You play 1,000 spins at €1/spin (€1,000 wagered):

  • 96% RTP slot → Expected loss: €40
  • 88% RTP slot → Expected loss: €120

You're losing 3× more on low-RTP slots.

Why RTP Doesn't Tell the Whole Story

Two slots can have the same RTP but feel completely different. That’s because of variance (also called volatility).

What Is Variance?

  • Low Variance: Frequent small wins
  • Medium Variance: Mix of small/medium wins
  • High Variance: Rare big wins, long downswings

Example:

Slot A: 96% RTP, Low Variance
→ Steady small wins, bankroll lasts longer

Slot B: 96% RTP, High Variance
→ Long losing streaks, occasional huge wins

Which Is Better?

Depends on your goals:

Player TypeBest VarianceSmall bankroll, wants playtimeLow varianceChasing jackpotsHigh varianceBalanced playerMedium variance

Where Your Money Lasts Longest

RTP varies widely across game types.

Slots: 88–98% RTP

  • High RTP: Blood Suckers (98%), Mega Joker (99%)
  • Average: 94–96%
  • Low: 88–92%
    Variance: Often high

Blackjack: ~99.5% RTP

  • Requires basic strategy
  • House edge ~0.5%
    Variance: Low–medium

Roulette

  • European: 97.3%
  • American: 94.74%
    Variance: Medium

Video Poker: 99.5–99.9% RTP

  • Requires strategy charts
    Variance: Medium–high

Live Dealer Games

Matches table game RTP.

Progressive Jackpot Slots: 88–94% RTP

  • Lower RTP because jackpots are funded by players
    Variance: Extremely high

Where Casinos Hide (or Display) RTP Data

Where to Find RTP:

  1. In-game info screen (“i” or “?” icon)
  2. Casino game library listings
  3. Developer websites
  4. BetEdge RTP Database

Red Flag:
If a casino hides RTP, it’s a warning sign. Transparency = trust.

Common RTP Myths (And Why They’re Wrong)

Myth: “This slot is due for a payout.”
Reality: Slots have no memory.

Myth: “Casinos lower RTP when I’m winning.”
Reality: RTP is locked by developers.

Myth: “RTP is higher at night.”
Reality: Time doesn't affect programmed RTP.

Myth: “High RTP = more frequent wins.”
Reality: Variance determines win frequency.

Myth: “Betting systems beat slots.”
Reality: Nothing beats a built-in house edge.

The BetEdge Strategy: Maximize Entertainment, Minimize Loss

You can’t beat RTP—but you can use it wisely.

1. Play High RTP Games

Always choose 96%+ RTP slots.

2. Match Variance to Your Bankroll

  • Low bankroll → low variance
  • Big bankroll → high variance
  • Unsure → medium variance

3. Avoid Progressive Jackpots

Lower RTP due to jackpot funding.

4. Play Table Games for Better Odds

Blackjack and video poker offer >99% RTP with strategy.

5. Never Chase Losses

RTP guarantees the house wins long-term.

The Edge Is Knowing the Math

RTP is the most transparent metric casinos publish—it tells you exactly how much you're expected to lose over time.

But players cling to myths about hot/cold machines, due payouts, or betting systems.

The BetEdge Approach:

  • Understand RTP is long-term
  • Accept short-term variance
  • Choose high RTP games
  • Match variance to bankroll
  • Don’t chase systems that don’t work

Read Next: Understanding Variance & Volitility →

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